Last Updated : 04 March 2013 at 12:10 IST
The Chinese government has announced a spate of measures to cool the property markets in the Middle Kingdom creating negative impact on the commodities across the board. While gold is supported at the lower levels due to sequestration measures adopted by US, crude oil futures are down along with base metals.
Chinese authorities have called for higher down payments and interest rates for second-home mortgages in places where the prices are appreciating fast and have also doled out provisions to enforce tax laws strictly.
“The curbs were expected. Earlier the curbs applied to third-home mortgages. The measures would enhance the the fall in commodities and may prove to be beneficial for a huge commodity importer like India.” said VK Vijayakumar, Investment Strategist, Geojit BNP Paribas, Kochi.
“Though sequestration has been effected in US, the economic indicators there remain positive. The gradual phasing out of QE measures cannot be ruled out and the commodities that have been propped up by excessive liquidity would come down. Gold, crude and base metals would fall resulting in benefits accruing for India.” he added.
However, he concluded that Europe still remains a problem.
If the commodity prices come down and RBI is able to cut rates aggressively, India's growth problem could be addressed easily. The 'price sanity' in turn can help commodity futures in India in the longer term as demand picks up especially for base metals and crude oil. The market would then reflect supply-demand picture in a better way.
Peking order
Chinese PM Wen Jiabao instructed authorioties to “decisively” curb property speculation.
“This is a final effort by Premier Wen to put a stamp on the direction of policy before he leaves office and the message is clear: there should be no relaxation of property market controls,” Mark Williams, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said to Bloomberg
“This is a sensible policy. Even allowing for the construction slowdown of last year, the real estate sector remains on an unsustainable path.” he added.
The government in 2011 hiked the down payment on second mortgages to 60% and wanted the customers to pay rates which are at least 10 percent higher than the central bank’s benchmark rates.
“The accommodative cycle for the real estate sector has ended and is entering a tightening cycle,” Shi Qi, a Shanghai-based analyst at CEBM Group, an advisory company told Bloomberg on current measures.
“Demand would shrink obviously in the second half and prices may start falling next year.” he predicted.
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