Last Updated : 02 March 2013 at 14:30 IST
The India government borrows aggressively and fiscal year 2013-14 may see government borrowing close to Rs. 5 lakh crore almost unchanged from the last fiscal year. This necessarily crowds out the private sector borrowing as the sector may have to shell out additional amount in interest rates to secure loans ultimately fuelling inflation.
The views were espoused by Akshay Agarwal, Managing Director, Acumen Capital Market at the event—Union Budget 2013-14, A Comprehensive Analysis--organised by CII and Ernst & Young did put things in perspective.
“As the private sector is crowded out, it generally affects manufacturing side and would lead to a supply crunch, fuelling inflation.” Agarwal said. Sustained inflation would weaken the currency and the government will have to spend additional amount to import items like crude oil.” Agarwal pointed out.
This would in effect weaken the health of the economy as Current Account Deficit mounts. “In 2008, we had a CAD of 1%-1.5% of GDP. Now it stands at 5.2%” he pointed out.
The event held on Friday evening in Kochi was attended by eminent business men from Kerala. It witnessed experts from Ernst &Young explaining the nuances of tax proposals in the budget.
Deepak V. Rao of Ernst & Young shed light on a draconian provision in the budget that has not gained much attention so far.
In the event of a tax payer owing money to the authorities is found to have no money with him/her, another person who owes money to the tax payer may be approached by tax authorities to extricate the sum. This 'another person' may be penalised if he/she does not comply with the order of tax authorities.
Agarwal also pointed out that the policy paralysis that had engulfed the government a few months back wasted a great opportunity.
P.C.Cyriac, former Chief Secretary of the government of Tamil Nadu agreed with this later on in an interactive session. He blamed poor governance as a reason behind the sad plight of Indian economy.
While Chidambaram was only able to raise some Rs.18000 crore in revenues from tax, the subsidy burden has been huge. “The measures adopted to eventually hike diesel prices is a step in the right direction. This literally saved the economy.” Agarwal said.
Later on, a discussion on the industry perspective of the budget was carried out by a panel attended by PC Syriac, PC John (Executive Director, the Federal Bank Limited), Jacob Kuruvilla (VP & CFO, V-Guard Industries Ltd.), Anil Lukose (Associate Director, Ernst & Young) and A Gopalakrishnan (Senior Partner, K Venkatachalam Iyer & Co.)
The 7 lakh crore credit target set in the budget for the agriculture sector is obligatory on the banks and if they fail to comply with the same would see their share of funds getting diverted to schemes of less profit, said PC John.
He also said that agriculture NPAs are relatively less when compared to non-agriculture NPAs or industry NPAs.
Jacob Kuruvuila opined the funds set apart to the tune of Rs.800 crores for the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy would aid the sector develop additional capacity.
MSA Kumar, MD of AVT Natural Products moderated the session.
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