Showing posts with label cyprus gold sale. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cyprus gold sale. Show all posts

Sunday, April 14, 2013

The return of the Gold bull as Cyprus issue makes strong come back?


Last Updated : 12 April 2013 at 08:40 IST
In a new twist to the Eurozone crisis, Cyprus creditors have suddenly found that the island nation would require at least 23 billion Euros to be rescued contrary to the earlier figure of 17.5 billion Euros.
As of now, it seems nobody knows for sure how this has suddenly come about. A spokesperson of Cyprus government blamed the previous government.
The BBC reports: He blamed the gulf between the original bailout total and the new 23bn figure on the previous administration and the time it took to negotiate a bailout, delays which pushed the cost of recapitalising its banks much higher. 
“…reality set in as a botched deal began to unravel. The recession will be far deeper, requiring greater government spending on benefits. And troubled banks might need further recapitalisation.”Mark Lowen of BBC News said in yet another analysis
The economy of Cyprus is expected to shrink at least by 10% this year.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled to meet on Friday to discuss the current development.
Last month, a deal had been clinched to rescue Cyprus, wherein the country was supposed to raise 7.5 billion Euros for the promised help from the troika of IMF, ECB and the European Commission which was to the tune of 10 billion Euros. Now, it looks like Cyprus will have to raise additional 5.5 billion Euros to 6 billion Euros taking the total figure it is supposed to raise in the range of 13 billion Euros.
In trying to raise the previous amount of money, not only was a bank packed up, depositors who held more than 100000 Euros had to take a hair cut of about 60%.
The Central Bank of Cyprus had clarified that reports of Cyprus' $523 million gold sale have not been “raised, discussed or debated” and there exists no “current or future plans to do so on the board’s agenda.” This was reported by Cyprus News Agency to whom the spokesperson for the Central Bank of Cyprus decided to talk.
[The news agency Reuters had reported Wednesday that “...European Commission documents showed Cyprus plans to sell 400 million euros' worth of reserves to finance part of its bailout - a move that marks the biggest euro zone bullion sale in four years.”]
In a twist, late on Thursday, Christos Stylianides, spokesperson of Cyprus government said that the option was on the table:
“The Cypriot government put various options forward, including this," Christos Stylianides told a news conference.
Last Updated : 12 April 2013 at 08:40 IST
The country holds bullion reserves of 13.9 tons as of February and an assessment by the European Commission says the island nation must have to sell close to 400m euros worth of gold. That amounts to 10.36 tons of gold (a figure almost equal to what Turkey bought in January.)
When the Reuters report on Cyprus’ gold sales emerged on Wednesday, it caused a fall in gold prices of at least 1%. But the miniscule sales by Cyprus will not dent the price of gold over the medium term as the appetite for gold in international markets far exceeds the supply.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty and potent risks that the twist in Cyprus has brought forth may ensure that safe haven demand in gold would persist. On the Comex, gold for delivery on June 13 closed at 1564.90, Thursday and as of Friday morning on the Globex platform, the markets ruled at $1561.45 an ounce.
Does it herald a bull run?
The answer depends on the actions of the island nation of population less than 1 million and the demanding troika! 

Who is afraid of Cyprus Gold sale?


Last Updated : 11 April 2013 at 10:55 IST
The Central Bank of Cyprus has clarified that reports of Cyprus' $523 million gold sale have not been “raised, discussed or debated” and there exists no “current or future plans to do so on the board’s agenda.” This was reported by Cyprus News Agency to whom the spokesperson for the Central Bank of Cyprus decided to talk.
The news agency Reuters had reported yesterday that “...European Commission documents showed Cyprus plans to sell 400 million euros' worth of reserves to finance part of its bailout - a move that marks the biggest euro zone bullion sale in four years.”
This had caused gold prices to slip drastically. “Spot gold hit a low of $1,567.54 an ounce and was down 1 percent at $1,568.46 an ounce at 1521 GMT.” Reuters report noted.
As of writing this, gold is trading on the Comex at $1559.45 an ounce, a gain of $0.65 or 0.04% as of 10.21 AM IST.
The story of Cypriot gold sale coupled with bearish reading of Federal Open Market Committee Minutes (which was released ahead of schedule) almost killed the gold bulls. The members stand divided on when the Easing measures should be ended. But it has to be noted that the Fed minutes are of the FOMC meet held March 19-20.
The recent job data portray a bleak image of the US economy as it failed to add as much jobs as expected. The reports showed that only 88000 jobs had been much lower than expected figures. And invariably the big Ben of Federal Reserve has tolled umpteen times that Quantitative Easing measures are tethered to job market recovery in US.
This means, the new FOMC meet scheduled for April 30- May 1 may take a hawkish stand. Gold still has some firepower left in it!
Now, what if Cyprus had really decided to sell gold?
Chances are low that a Cyprus gold sale would increase the supply of gold to such an extent that it would create a gold deluge and bring down prices.
There is still so much of gold appetite left in the markets.
"No country's gold reserves are sufficient on their own to make more than a small (difference) in their debt position, and they probably think holding gold reserves is better than selling them... if there is a risk you may leave the euro." Macquarie metals analyst Matthew Turner said to Reuters in a different context.
Chances are more that story of Cyprus gold sales having brought gold futures down is a temporary phenomenon. This, coupled with a possible hawkish stand for the next FOMC meet would see to it that gold futures would see some uptrend in the futures.