Last Updated : 04 April 2013 at 17:40 IST
The US' pivot to Asia has been presented to the United States in a platter by its worst enemy North Korea and China is now possibly regretting that it did not restrain North Korea adequately.
Latest reports say that as soon as the United Sates decided to move its missile defence system to Guam, North Korea moved in with a new threat. It has moved a missile to east coast amid vows of attack on US bases.
Who started all this is an irrelevant question. But the escalation or the upward spiralling of the crisis is something that is evoking serious concerns all over the world.
Daniel Pinkston, a North Korea expert at the International Crisis Group, raises a pertinent question as he spoke to The Telegraph:
"The US has to deter North Korea without antagonising it and fulfil its commitments to South Korea and Japan. What hardware do you deploy and what signalling do you do?" He said he was unsure if officials really intended to dial back their position. "What else is the US going to do? It has sent out a nuclear submarine, the B52 bombers, the B2 stealth jets, a pair of destroyers and now I hear an aircraft carrier is on the way. What else have they got to roll out? Once they have done all this, is it then rolling back if they pause?" he said.
In other words, getting all these million dollar toys to the place is relatively easy. But once you have deployed them, how and in what context would you retrace it?
Ultimately, US has to come out of all this in a positive way. If the tensions escalate and US backs off, it would be a virtual failure for the US. But they, following a possible skirmish or even a war--in which the US would ultimately prevail--could not only get North Korea to agree to sign on dotted lines, but also secure their military interests in the Korean peninsula much to the consternation of Chinese. In fact, China may not be in a position to remain neutral in the event of a war or even a skirmish and will have to join North Korean side; but that would then evolve to be a full-blown war of World War scale. This scenario would possibly never occur.
The Obama administration has said US would have its focus on the unraveling Asian century and would reap benefits together with Asia while the continent progresses in a well laid out economic trajectory.
This has evoked considerable Chinese ire.
China views this as a strategy of containment and may be is in a process of using North Korea to tell the US that things may not be as easy as it sounds.
China will now have to restrain North Korea from employing the threats it has raised or risk a war in its neighbourhood. US, by all accounts is not going to talk to North Korea as that would severely compromise US' position. But, then how Kim Jong-un would save his face and retain his throne? How would he retain his popularity and pre-eminence amongst his peers in North Korean establishment?
Currently, North Korean leader, is in a way, trying to assert himself over the current domestic political establishment in his land by kicking up a furore. And if China finds his position getting unstable may choose to get rid of him. The pawn will be sacrificed in the geopolitical chess board to restrict the capitalistic queen that is US.
No comments:
Post a Comment