Last Updated : 02 April 2013 at 13:50 IST
The only casualty in the current North Korean issue that has been unraveling with a touch of excessive light and sound drama is a Chinese editor who lost his job! He opined in an article without thinking much of the consequences that China should abandon its firebrand ally North Korea. And in China, it is dangerous to have an opinion not to speak of a frank and sensible one.
“Once the door of reform opened, the regime could be overthrown. Why should China maintain relations with a regime and a country that will face failure sooner or later?” New York Times quoted from the article appeared in The Financial Times authored by Deng Yuwen, Deputy Editor of Study Times, a weekly journal of the Central Party School entrusted with training rising Chinese officials.
“I was relieved of the position because of that article, and I’m suspended indefinitely. Although I’m still being paid by the company, I don’t know when I will be given another position.” media cited him as saying in the aftermath of the article.
Let us leave it there and wish Deng a bright 'paid vacation' to be followed by some challenging assignment somewhere else.
In fact, China has leverage on North Korea to such an extent that the very North Korean rhetoric looks flowing from a Chinese tongue in Chinese slang.
“North Korea is a pawn in the hands of China” said Rajendra Abhyankar a retired IFS officer based out of New Delhi.
And one cannot expect China to sacrifice this valuable pawn unless there would be some concrete gains.
North Korean objective
“I don't see the possibility of a war between North Korea and South Korea.” said Abhyankar over telephone. “The basic intention of North Korea is to have the United States agree to a one-on-one talk with them.” he said. “Besides, China will not let this situation escalate.”
Agrees D.S Rajan, Head, Chennai Centre for China studies, a think tank from South India.“North Korea may want the sanctions imposed on them lifted.” he said. “It is basically a pressure tactic.” he added.
A war between two Koreas will also see China and United States drawn into it, Abhyankar pointed out. Needless to say, that possibility is least welcome.
“However, I don't rule out the possibility of minor skirmishes occurring in the border.” Abhyankar said citing the delicate nature of the issue. “This would also be a test for the South Korean leadership which would be forced to respond with force if something untoward happens.” Abhyankar also said, “Rhetoric is a North Korean preserve. We have seen this before.”
He also brought attention to the fact that the pawn that is North Korea may be used by China as US declares its Pacific Century and Asia pivot.
The Obama administration has said US would have its focus on the unraveling Asian century and would reap benefits together with Asia while the continent progresses in a well laid out economic trajectory. This has evoked considerable Chinese ire.
The Obama administration has said US would have its focus on the unraveling Asian century and would reap benefits together with Asia while the continent progresses in a well laid out economic trajectory. This has evoked considerable Chinese ire.
China views this as a strategy of containment and may be in a process of using North Korea to tell the US that things may not be as easy as it sounds.
“A number of messages are being exchanged in this context.” Abhyankar said. However, Rajan of CCCS feels the US pivot and Korean issue are separate ones.
“It could also be that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is in a way trying to assert himself over the current establishment there. The system in North Korea is very opaque.” Rajan said.
Recently, The BBC News said that the current threat in Korean issue is not war per se, but that of miscalculation by one of the sides.
Impact on commodities
While the North Korean rhetoric and US responses short of war is sure to add volatility to gold and crude oil prices, it would not drive prices of the commodities up beyond a point. The current issue in its current form is largely local, experts say. The current status is such that the markets are yet to price in a war between both Koreas.
Since the issue concerns an immature North Korea having an arsenal of nuclear weapons, a single bullet fired from one of the sides can significantly propel gold prices higher.
"If a war erupts, MCX gold prices may touch 30500 levels." said Amrita Mashar, Reserach Analyst at Commodity Online.
No comments:
Post a Comment