Sunday, April 14, 2013

Crude Oil bulls beware: There is no hostage situation in North Korea


Last Updated : 03 April 2013 at 13:05 IST
Media reports, including a twitter rumour falsely suggest that there is almost a hostage situation in North Korea as South Korean workers are not allowed to leave the Kaesong Industrial Park, a jointly operated venture by both Koreas. Some light is to be shed on this aspect as false alarms can always spark unintended rally in crude oil markets. 
[Last Saturday, when North Korea declared it is entering into a state of war with South Korea, it sparked a rally in MCX crude oil. While the situation is acute in Korean Peninsula with US moving in with some military hardware of air and seas, it is yet to turn lethal, so that, a price rally would occur in crude oil.]
The New York Times reports that while South Koreans are not allowed to enter the Park, they are not restricted from leaving. 
“Over 480 South Koreans — many with their trucks — who showed up at a border crossing on Wednesday morning were denied permission to cross and had to turn around, said the Unification Ministry of South Korea, which is in charge of relations with the North.
But North Korea promised to allow 861 South Koreans currently staying in Kaesong to return home if they wished, the ministry said. Of them, 446 had been scheduled to return to the South as part of routine rotations of managers and workers. But with no replacements allowed to arrive, only 46 decided to return home on Wednesday.”
The Unification Ministry, South Korea however has expressed regretthat South Koreans are being denied entry into the Park.
“This morning North Korea informed our government that it will prohibit the entry of the South Korean workers to the Gaeseong Industrial Complex(GIC) and only permit their exit from the GIC.
The Korean government deeply regrets that the normal passage to and from the GIC is not taking place today.
Ensuring the safety of our nationals is our top priority and the Korean government will take necessary measures based on this principle. We will further review our stance following consultations with the tenant companies at the GIC.” said a press release from South Korea's Ministry of Unification. 
“...we urge North Korea to immediately normalize the entry and exit of the South Korean workers to and from the GIC.” noted another release from the ministry. While this statement from the second press release calls for normalising the entry and exit of the South Korean workers, the phrase normalising of exit may stand for technical aspect of it rather than a practical aspect.
So what is behind this North Korean move?
Sabre-rattling and pressure tactics may best describe the current entry barrier raised by North Korea. The decision to restrict entry to the Park follows North Korean decision to revive a mothballed nuclear reactor to produce weapon's grade plutonium. While it is yet to see how worthy is the decision and the reactor itself, North Korea is getting involved in a dangerous game.
North Korea suffers from an attention deficit problem and they want the US to blink first in an apparent bid to evoke economic, political and diplomatic takeaways.
This include lifting of sanctions.

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