Earlier, we had discussed how not to lose money in speculation tides. This time around we will see how realistic are the assumptions regarding global stimulus measures that the investors so hopefully cling to.
Commodity investors around the world are pegging their hopes on stimulus measures from three locations: China, US and Europe.
In fact Brent crude oil for September climbed 69 cents to $113.64 in the morning hours which has been mainly attributed to stimulus measure expectations. But how realistic are those assumptions? Commodity Online conferred with a Kochi based economist, Martin Patrick to get his views on the subject.
He believes that impact of stimulus measures followed till date and the nature of stimulus measures in the offing would determine the trajectory of future global growth.
On China: Stimulus: Yes; but for domestic economy
Chinese political system, given its closed structure has been able to hide certain facts. There could be problems embedded in the Chinese economic system which have been hiding for a while and which may come out at any given point in the near future.
“Take for example the case of agriculture; not much of growth is getting registered there...Look at the trade data; mutual trade between modestly growing India and China has dipped by 25% in the second quarter.” he said.
“That's not a good signal.” he added.
The economic nightmare unveiling in Europe and the stalled recovery in US would continue to challenge Chinese economy, Martin Patrick said.
“Yes, there would be stimulus measures, but would be intended at stimulating the household sector consumption and promoting growth of manufacturing sector in finished goods.”
On US: Stimulus : Yes; QE3
The US economy has picked up a momentum and additional stimulus measures could be expected in the near future, Martin Patrick observed.
“The previous stimulus measures have been utilised by manufacturing companies to improve their growth. Banks have also been benefitted. Within a period of 6 months to 1 year, the momentum in that economy is expected to gain.”
On Europe: Stimulus: Yes; in the guise of austerity
Europe is a tricky situation, as per Martin Patrick.
They have announced a slew of measures till date and has not been able to employ them in full. There were some partially helpful measures; but not a game changer as yet, he observed.
“There would be stimulus measures. But they will have an austerity content. Chances are robust that bad news regarding some other economies other than Spain and Italy could be very much around the corner” he concluded.
As published in:
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/opinion-us-china-stimulus-in-the-offing;-europe-tricky-49694-3-49695.html
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