Russian military, Gas prowess: Ukraine over, Poland and Belarus next?

If Russian President Vladimir Putin states that he has a dream, the ex-Soviet Republics would either have nightmares or have sleepless nights. Putin does have a dream and that dream is the resurgence of Soviet might, perhaps adjusted to current day realities. And Russian gas and oil have pivotal roles in helping him realise his dreams.

What he wants is not a centralised Soviet Union dominating the former Republics. That would be impossible to achieve in current day circumstances. But he can still maintain defacto control over former Soviet republics; Ukraine and especially Crimea is going to be an example in this regard.

Why Russia has decided to annex Crimea?

The Russian naval presence, its largest offshore, is a compelling reason for Russia to annex Crimea. Let us not nurse the illusion that Russian leader is interested in protecting the welfare of Russian speakers in Crimea.

If he has not heeded the calls of his own citizens in matters related to transparency and accountability of governance in Russia, how can he be deemed to represent Russian interests in Russian soil in a democratic sense? Now, if that be true, how can we ever expect the Russian President to represent and fight for Russian speaking Crimeans in foreign soil and that too, against the wishes and amid threats from international community?

Hence the argument that Russia is trying to protect the interests of Russian speaking Crimeans by annexing Crimea carries no weight.

Currently Crimea is an Autonomous Republic within Ukraine, a sovereign territory of Ukraine and therefore indivisible from Ukraine. However, according to an intergovernmental agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the latter had allowed Russian Navy at Sevastopol in Crimea with strict provisions that limit the soldiers from crossing a certain perimeter.

By annexing Crimea, Russia can use the base for its own ends—already the base is the largest one offshore Russia—with no restrictions, in other words like a blank cheque of significant strategic leverage.

This will have two dividends. Russia, depending on its strategic intentions, can go for a limitless troop surge and hardware augmentation in Crimea. Secondly, annexation can result in the dangling of a permanent sword hung over Ukraine, thereby forcing it to behave in line with commands in Russian.

Given the massive troop presence in Crimea, Ukraine would lose its strategic autonomy and its decisions on multiple policy fronts would be shaped by the Russian presence subconsciously. Crimea would thus be a valve that would allow Russia to step up pressure on Ukraine at its will and pleasure. By exercising sovereign control over Crimea, Russia can maintain defacto control over Ukraine.

The gas question

Russia is still the largest energy supplier to Europe. And many a pipeline network established in Soviet era passes through Ukraine and nations like Poland and Belarus. Russia has on different occasions turned off the gas to Ukraine and thereby Western Europe before. That was mainly due to conflicts arising out of pricing of gas. Recent reports suggest that if cash-strapped Ukraine were not to pay its dues on gas purchases, Gazprom—Russia’s monopoly on gas—would once again turn the valves off stepping up pressure on Ukraine. But this would have had its consequences, if not for pipelines—Nord Stream--extending to Western Europe underneath the Baltic Sea.

There are only a few pipeline networks that carry gas from Russia to other parts of Europe. Until the Nord stream got online, the pipeline network to Western Europe was mainly through Ukraine. This meant that by turning off supplies to Ukraine, Russia would in turn and without intention, turned off supplies to Western Europe as well. But with the Nord Stream operational, Russia can afford to do that although it may involve ‘costs’ renting-in on the words of Obama.

By annexing Crimea and pumping gas to Western Europe through Nord Stream, Russia can virtually isolate Ukraine, Belarus and Poland. The latter two are also dependent on Russia for energy needs. Now, with South Stream gas supplies in the pipeline--yet another gas transit extravaganza underneath the Black Sea—Russia could supply gas to other parts of Europe while leaving Ukraine and other nations shiver in European winter and simmer in summer thereby exerting defacto control over Poland and Belarus.

Now one may ask how someone can control and derive strategic dividends from Poland using gas supplies as a tool. My humble suggestion to them would be to closely study the map of Europe.

Between Lithuania and Poland, Russia does have an exclave called Kaliningrad. It is the home of Russian Baltic Sea fleet, yet another strategic outpost. No wonder, states like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania summoned NATO jets on spotting Russia overtures over the Baltic coast recently.

The long term issue

Annexation of Crimea under the pretext of defending Russian speaking Crimeans, is just the beginning. Putin does have an expansionist design when it comes to restoring Soviet glory. But he knows too well that territorially annexing the Baltic nations would be quite difficult, if not impossible. The only provision left is to maintain defacto control over these nations. And a mix of gas, diplomacy, military presence and masked soldiers sporting nil insignia would contribute to a new model. Putin is just running a test of the same in Crimea with text book precision.

However, in this context one should also note that this future of Soviet prowess is being portrayed assuming many other factors would remain static. But that is never going to be the case. For every action, there would be an equal and comparable reaction, although unpredictable. NATO would be there, so would be the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe assessing, planning and responding to Russian actions.

But the Great Recession that kicked the US in its soft underbelly, not to speak of self-defeating Congressional tussles and debilitating military cuts would not be least helpful in contributing to a solution. In a sense, we would see the Cold War getting heated up, going forward.

The only bright spots are the US’ shale energy boom and the togetherness in the European Union; both achievements could play a pivotal role in shaping the multilateral equations.(rakesh.neelakandan@gmail.com)

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/russian-military-gas-prowess-ukraine-over-poland-and-belarus-next-58181-3-58182.html