Last Updated : 06 May 2013 at 06:15 IST
Israel has attacked Syria on Friday last week as well as Sunday this week in an apparent bid to stop the Iran-made Fateh-110 precision missiles from getting into the hands of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. While Israeli officials on condition of anonymity have confirmed the attack, no political leader in Israel would do the same.
This attack was met with sound and fury, but the consequences were muted. The scenario could not be different this time as well as Assad may want the words to be louder than actions this time too as his position is severely compromised and his regime is deeply mired in the civil war against rebels who seek to oust him.
Speaking to CNN, Faisal al Mekdad, Syria’s deputy foreign minister, described the attack as a “declaration of war” and said it would retaliate in its own time and way. Syria had the right “to defend its people by all available means”, said Omran al Zoubi, information minister, adding that the attacks were a “flagrant violation of international law” and made the Middle East “more dangerous”.
No wonder, crude oil prices have climbed on the Globex platform of NYMEX.
As of 05.53 AM IST, WTI crude oil for delivery on June 13 was seen trading at $96.88 registering a gain of $1.27 or 1.33%. Brent crude oil on the same platform for the same date was spotted trading at $105.35 a barrel, providing for a gain of $1.22 or 1.17% as of 05.56 AM.
The futures began to climb on Friday when the US jobs data said hiring by firms in US picked up in April more than anticipated and unemployment rates dwindled.
So, will there be a war?
The same Financial Times report adds: “analysts said that, while escalation was possible, neither side had much interest in launching a full-scale war against the other. A broader conflict with Israel would open a dangerous new front for the Assad regime at a time when it is already stretched by a two-year-old armed rebellion”
Chances are miniscule that Syrian rebels would join Assad in a fight against a foreign enemy that is Israel:
“We call on the Syrian people to hold steadfast onto the revolution, and to reject the regime’s consistent aggression against the interests of the country and its people. We ask the Syrian people to continue working towards our goal of ridding the country of the destruction and chaos created by the Assad ruling family, who has consistently allowed its interests to take precedent over national interests,” statement released by Syrian Coalition Media Office , the media wing of Syrian rebels said, subseqent to the attacks.
While Middle East ideologically has become more dangerous and the scenarios there much more uncertain, on a functional level, the status quo would be maintained as an otherwise-scenario would be chaotic to the core. In times of uncertainty chaos is at best avoided and nobody knows this better than Israel helping them take a calculated risk.
The current fillip to the crude oil futures could thus be short lived. The futures would be much more sensitive to data from Eurozone and Europe in the days ahead at least in the medium term.
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