Saturday, April 27, 2013

'Insider information' on India's South West Monsoon


Last Updated : 27 April 2013 at 10:00 IST
Indian Meteorological Department, India's official weather agency has said yesterday that the South-West monsoon is most likely to be normal. That is a good news for all the people of India.
“I have very good news for the farmers as well as others. Monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal this year,” said S. Jaipal Reddy, Minister for Science and Technology, announcing IMD’s predictions.
“We are not giving any region-wise prediction at this point in time,” said L. S. Rathore, Director-General, IMD. Meanwhile, parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka already under the firm grip of droughts may see relief as rains are expected to be better there than last year.
“But we will have to wait till June for a clearer picture to emerge,” Rathore said.
Now, take a look at this Hindu Business Line report:
Interestingly, on Friday morning, ahead of IMD forecast, Food Minister K. V. Thomas had said, “the overall monsoon is expected to be satisfactory, except that in the southern tip of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, it may be delayed or less than normal”. Asked to comment on Thomas’ observations, Rathore said: “Ours is the official version and the monsoon this year is most likely to be normal”.

If one goes into the details and re-read the media reports, one can see that the IMD's prediction of normal monsoons is in sync with what Minister has said.
The minister has chosen to comment laying stress on the regional aspect of monsoon even as the IMD stuck to the national aspect; IMD has said that it is not providing any region-wise prediction at this point in time. But the minister has arguably given some or the other sort of 'insider information', probably inadvertently and has said that in the southern tip of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, monsoon may be delayed or less than normal. He too agrees that the overall monsoon is expected to be satisfactory. 
Have the agri futures markets taken note of this? 

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