Introduction
The United States Intelligence Community (IC), comprising of sixteen intelligence agencies has finally reached a billion-dollar consensus: Iran may not develop ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) at least for the next six to eleven years! Previously, it was believed that Iran had plans to develop ICBMs in a lesser time-frame.
The United States’ NMD (National Missile Defence) program was conceived to take care of the scenario, where Iran or North Korea comes up with the ICBM to attack America.
However in a move which drew appreciation and flak alike, Mr. Obama has decided to scrap the BMDS (Ballistic Missile Defence System) - a program of NMD- to be deployed at Eastern Europe. Russian premier Mr. Vladmir Putin, has welcomed the initiative and even termed it “correct and brave”. BMDS, which had aimed to address the threat from Iran, was perceived as a threat to Russia in the garb of a missile defence system.
In the world of defence and strategy, every high-profile move has their own implicit intentions. Though critics are pummelling the US President, telling that the initiative will be interpreted as a sign of “ weakness” rather than “ goodwill”, the US is sure to have many trumps up their sleeves.
What is BMD?
BMD is a missile defence system intended to protect the US, its deployed forces, allies and friends from ballistic missiles of all ranges and in all phases of flight.
Ballistic missiles are grouped into four, based on their range:
1. Short-range (less than 1,000 kilometers)
2. Medium-range (1,000 to 3,000 kilometers)
3. Intermediate-range (3,000 to 5,500 kilometers)
4. Long-range (greater than 5,500 kilometers)
These missiles could be intercepted in three stages:
1. The boost phase, wherein the launch vehicle has been launched and its boosters have burned out.
2. Mid-course phase which means the flight through space.
3. Terminal phase where the missile is nearing its target.
Weaponry, including missiles, guided by sensors plays the role of the interceptor. A command and control system facilitates interception.
Disadvantages of the current BMD
The BMD had envisioned deploying (only)ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland as weaponry and building a huge radar site in Czech Republic to sniff out the trajectory of the threat. The intelligence reports in 2006, furnishing the pace of the development of ICBMs by Iran, promoted the BMD program.
But the new reports tell a different story:
Iran, in its efforts to boost its capabilities is in the course of developing, short and medium- range ballistic missiles. The pace of their innovation has made the Americans to sit-up and take notice. The BMD project, in its current form, is simply incapable of addressing the short- to medium-range ballistic missiles that could be fired by Iran. It would leave the Americans lurking in darkness as Iran fine-tunes its technological prowess.
Moreover, the proposed interceptors in Poland would have facilitated nil coverage to some of the allies in NATO like Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and Turkey.
Above all, Russia perceived it as a new step in the arms race with American missiles right in its yard.
Obama’s Plan
In the new plan, missile defence components will be deployed across Europe in a span of ten years in four phases, beginning from 2011- the main-stay of the program being a combination of fixed and re-locatable Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) and radars.
The plan in phases:
Phase one: In the timeframe of 2011, deploy the tried and tested missile defence systems available. The whole process may take the subsequent two years and includes the sea based Aegis weapon system, the SM-3 interceptor (Block 1A), and sensors such as the forward-based Army Navy / Transportable Radar Surveillance system (AN/ TPY-2). The advantage is obvious: regional ballistic missile threats to Europe and the deployed US troops and their families will be taken care of.
Phase two: In the timeframe of 2015, deploy a more capable version of the SM-3 interceptor (Block IB) in both sea and land-based configurations succeeding appropriate testing. Advanced sensors will help in expanding the defended area against threats arising out of short- and medium-range missiles.
Phase three: In the time-frame of 2018, deploy the more advanced SM-3 Block IIA variant (which is currently under development). It will work against short-, medium- and intermediate-range missile threats.
Phase four: In the time-frame of 2020, deploy the SM-3 Block IIB after its development and testing are complete. It would help US to cope with medium - and intermediate-range missiles and the potential ICBM threat of the future.
The US will also be improving the sensors for missile defence throughout the four phases. And the
new plan doesn’t warrant the installation of huge radar in Czech Republic. A different and better interceptor technology means ease of deployment and use.
The new system of missile defence will be augmented with the existing ground-based interceptors deployed at Alaska and California to protect the home-land, in the fourth phase. Moreover, the new plan is six to seven years ahead of the shelved plan, in implementation. In addition to extending the protective umbrella over all NATO members and allies, in concert with their individual defence capabilities, the plan provides flexibility to up-grade and adjust the architecture of interceptor system in a cost-effective manner.
Unlike the previous plan, the new missile defence plan incorporates the allies in Europe as well as NATO. It promotes a multi-lateral approach and not a trilateral approach involving Poland and Czech Republic only. In short, the new system is more “realistic” in its perception of threat scenarios.
The revised system will ensure that European countries and Unites States work more closely on strategic fronts. This will eventually give rise to a fortification of relationship between the participants, ensuring a stronger deterrent in place of which missile defence system is only a part of.
In a scenario where Iran launches a missile at a NATO ally, it will incur the wrath of all NATO members.
A call to Russia?
There seems to be a plan to invite Russia with its wealth of strategic knowledge, to join the new plan. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in his first major speech as the Secretary General, referred to this aspect. He emphasized on exploring the potential of linking the US, NATO and Russian missile defence systems “ at an appropriate time” to combine their collective wealth of experience aimed at “mutual benefit “. He was of the hope that a revival of NATO-Russia council where both parties could discuss common security concerns enhances cooperation. Iran, after all, is a concern for Russia too.
If the above said plan gets materialized, Iran gets the signal that US is not alone in its endeavour to curtail the strategic ambitions of the so called rogue sates.
Russia, though has welcomed the US plan to scrap the BMD, seems to be fully aware of the consequences of the new plan ( as explained in the ensuing paragraphs). Beyond diplomatic niceties as exhibited by the Russian premier, Russian Ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin said that Russia cannot be “childishly euphoric” about the US initiative to suspend the BMD deployment. Russians are reluctant to perceive it as a “concession” from the US.
Why Iran has changed course to a different degree of defence?
Before explaining in detail, the implications of the new missile defence system, it is worthwhile to think why Iran has changed its plans, in a strategic somersault. Why is it keen on developing short and medium range ballistic missiles instead of ICBMs?
It is because Iran has shuffled its priority hit list sensing change of strategic realities.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles are essentially long range missiles which Iran planned to include in its arsenal to mount a strike on America, of course after fitting it with an indigenous nuclear war head. Iran foresaw the possibility of a US strike and found that an effective deterrent can be nuclear weapons and a couple of delivery vehicles.
But soon enough, Iran realized that the actual threat lay somewhere close to it, in its neighbour hood- Israel. The Islamic Republic had been at loggerheads with the Zionist state since the Iranian revolution. The verbal wars between both countries continued into decades. Threats from US and satiation of Israel’s nuclear arsenal triggered the Iranian hunger for nukes. And that lead to its development of covert nuclear installations retailed out by notorious A.Q. Khan.
But one cannot depend on a postman to deliver these warheads! Hence, the short and medium range ballistic missiles, tailored for Israel.
The latest news is that Iran is shopping around to have advanced surface-to-air missiles (S-300) and Russia can be a source. Read this is in the context of Iran revealing its secret nuclear installation at Qom.
Iran now knows that it is impossible for it to develop nuclear weapons, at least when the Americans are on prowl. The only solution is to protect these facilities which it has painstakingly built after several years of sweating it out, braving sanctions. But Israel is someone who can upset the applecart. Russia too may back-off from selling missiles due to international pressure. The only way out is to foster the indigenous missile development program and protect itself from possible Israeli air-attacks.
Sneak a peek at Israel’s hand
As usual, Israel has played its trump-United States of America. Engaging all of its sixteen intelligence agencies for some serious data-mining in Iran shows the gravity of the situation as perceived by the Americans. If the previous plan was to install a BMDS to protect American longevity, the new plan takes into account the United States’ brother-like love for Israel. In the garb of protecting partners and allies and inviting Russia to join forces with America, US is stepping up the pressure on Iran that could break the barometer, eventually. Add to this, the fresh call for additional sanctions and the Iranians living a life in the ventilator, may soon be doomed. The internal unrest in Iran would be fomented, as peace and stability turn into rubble.
Advantage USA
So, what piece of pie will the U.S. get out of this? “Really big”, is the answer.
The US will get a back-door entry into the neighbour- hood of Russia as Iran turns into a cauldron of chaos. The authorities there can be dethroned. Iran has nuclear capability which is a good pretext for the US to ‘intervene’ or in other words, “Iraqing Iran”. Millions of barrels of oil and gas are an incentive enough! To achieve this, the US just has to relocate a part of its troops in the military bases of Afghanistan to Iran. Any wonder, the US is “considering” an increase of troops in Afghanistan?
Implications on Russia
Though the new plan is intended to curtail Iran’s strategic game plans, the ultimate aim could be Russia! A pro-US bulwark, which the plan eventually hopes to build in Europe and Asia by the year 2020, is definitely not in the interests of Russia- and Russia knows it well.
How Russia is going to tackle the emerging situation can be an interesting study in strategic affairs.
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